If I am going to trash others for their dumb predictions, I must at least hold myself to the same sort of accountability.

You can blow on the dice all you want, but whether they come up seven is still a function of random luck.

If I am going to trash others for their dumb predictions, I must at least hold myself to the same sort of accountability.

The good news is that economists are intelligent, engaging and often charming folks. The bad news is their work is often of little use to investors.

Rather than engage in the sort of selective retention that so many investors tend to do and pretend mistakes never happened, I prefer to own them. This allows me to learn from them and, with any luck, avoid making the same errors again.

One thing I detest most about the financial press is the lack of accountability. All sorts of nonsense is said without penalty.

The market is going to love it. The market always seems to applaud major mergers, even though the vast majority of them don't work out and don't increase shareholder value.