There are two sources of error: Either you lack sufficient data, or you fail to take advantage of the data that you have.
Bryan CaplanThere is a small minority of well-educated people with relatively sensible views on economics, and an extremely tiny minority of economists with highly sensible views. Then there's everybody else. ... To win, a politician needs to please the median voter. It makes little difference if a few thousand economists think you a fool.
Bryan CaplanIn daily life, reality gives us material incentives to restrain our irrationality. But what incentive do we have to think rationally about politics?
Bryan Caplan