Big moments like the Olympics tend to freeze things in place. It's just very hard to break through the news cycle with peoples's eyes on the Olympics. That's even more true with the concerns about Zika and terrorism.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are, and have been, totally known. Also, broadly disliked.

I think the desire to reject elites, to retreat within more comfortable geographic and personal borders and to lash out at political correctness is not a phenomenon unique to Britain or the US.

I don't think Hillary Clinton will get any sort of political honeymoon like George W Bush or Barack Obama enjoyed.

Donald Trump is doing remarkably badly among non-white voters and there are lots of them in Arizona.

I think Mike Pence figured that best case scenario he is vice president and worst case scenario he can say he tried to rein Donald Trump in for the good of the party.

I don't think Donald Trump is going to lose by 15 points to Hillary Clinton or even 10. The country still feels too polarized for that to happen.