First, we have to find a common vocabulary for energy security. This notion has a radically different meaning for different people. For Americans it is a geopolitical question. For the Europeans right now it is very much focused on the dependence on imported natural gas.

The North Sea was supposed to run out in the 1980s. Then in the 1990s. And now production is still on-line.

First, we have to find a common vocabulary for energy security. This notion has a radically different meaning for different people. For Americans it is a geopolitical question. For the Europeans right now it is very much focused on the dependence on imported natural gas.

Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of oil.

So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.

We experienced similiar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.

A premium in the oil price of somewhere between 10 to 15 dollars a barrel reflects this heightened anxiety.