Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of oil.

So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.

We experienced similiar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.

To meet the energy challenge requires the most important energy of all - human creativity. That's the real prize.

Even Silicon Valley investors have put well over a $1 billion in new energy technologies.

In a couple of years, the Chinese will be seen as regular participants in international industry. Their companies have to report to shareholders as well as to the Chinese authorities. They need to make money, they have to be efficient.

In a world of increasing interdependence, energy security will depend much on how countries manage their relations with one another. That is why energy security will be one of the main challenges of foreign policy in the years ahead. Oil and gas have always been political commodities.