As an investor my job is to figure out what will happen rather than what should happen.

You have a certain set of facts and you are looking for situations where you have an edge, whether the edge is psychological or statistical.

I will keep a substantial long exposure to gold -- which serves as a Jelly Donut antidote for my portfolio. While I'd love for our leaders to adopt sensible policies that would reduce the tail risks so that I could sell our gold, one nice thing about gold is that it doesn't even have quarterly conference calls.

When you leave a good job to go off on your own and don't expect to make money for a while, you name the firm whatever your wife says you should.

As an investor my job is to figure out what will happen rather than what should happen.

A 99% Value-at-Risk calculation does not evaluate what happens in the last one percent... This is like an airbag that works all the time, except when you have a car accident.

Microsoft has one more shot at a role in smart phone software through its deployment on Nokia phones. Nokia is still the global market share leader in cell phones. Maybe it will work out, but this is hard to envision great success in the area coming on the heels of so much disappointment in missed opportunity in this important and visible category.