You have a certain set of facts and you are looking for situations where you have an edge, whether the edge is psychological or statistical.

In the real world, illiquid assets carry a discount.

What do you call a stock that's down 90%? A stock that was down 80% and then got cut in half.

A 99% Value-at-Risk calculation does not evaluate what happens in the last one percent... This is like an airbag that works all the time, except when you have a car accident.

What is uncertain is how much further the bubble can expand, and what might pop it.

Microsoft could help Facebook with one of the biggest challenges, namely monetizing its traffic without reducing the user's experience. It's obvious that Microsoft needs traffic and Facebook needs search.

You have a certain set of facts and you are looking for situations where you have an edge, whether the edge is psychological or statistical.