Active management is a zero-sum game before cost, and the winners have to win at the expense of the losers.

I’d compare stock pickers to astrologers but I don’t want to bad mouth astrologers.

Markets are efficient, but there are different dimensions of risk and those lead to different dimensions of expected returns. That's what people should be concerned with in their investment decisions and not with whether they can pick stocks, pick winners and losers among the various managers delivering basically the same product.

In an efficient market at any point in time the actual price of a security will be a good estimate of its intrinsic value.

The distribution of the market is fat-tailed relative to the normal distribution... For passive investors, none of this matters, beyond being aware that outlier returns are more common than would be expected if return distributions were normal.

I don't even know what that means. People who get credit have to get it from somewhere. Does a credit bubble mean that people save too much during that period? I don't know what a credit bubble means. I don't even know what a bubble means. These words have become popular. I don't think they have any meaning.

I take the market-efficiency hypothesis to be the simple statement that security prices fully reflect all available information.