I said earlier [2015] year that I thought we'd get to 10 or 20 bucks [per barrel ] because that's the marginal cost, and when you're in a price war, it's the marginal cost that determines the price.It is a price war because basically the OPEC reason did not cut production in their November 2014 meeting was that they got tired of cutting production and having American frackers and Russians et cetera grab market share.
Gary ShillingA [Donald] Trump win might be bad for stocks, but it would be very positive for the dollar and Treasurys.
Gary ShillingDespite the recent conviction of many that we're headed back to inflation, I think deflation remains the more likely prospect. You've just got too much excess capacity in the world.
Gary ShillingIf you look back historically at the post-WWII period on average, if you get a 100-basis-point increase in Fed funds, the spillover to the ten-year is only 35 basis points, and 25 basis points into the 30-year - it's a fairly small spillover effect.
Gary ShillingTreasurys, as low as yields are, are higher than they are in most other developed countries. A foreign investor picks up a yield spread in Treasurys versus their own sovereigns, plus the fact that if the dollar is going to continue rallying - and I think it will because it's a safe haven - then they get a currency translation gain as well.
Gary Shilling