Assad's mother was a terror. He was terrified of her and she kept saying to him, you're not like your father. That's interesting, but it's useless information. It doesn't tell me anything about how the first and second armored brigades are going to operate.

But every time new powers emerge they have to find their balance. New powers are emerging, old powers are declining. It's not that process that's dangerous, it's the emerging position that's dangerous.

A research division develops marketing material for its deal makers. We have no policy position. If you have a policy position you can't possibly forecast.

The warrior must continue to make decisions in the face of extreme circumstances. He cannot afford to get angry or frightened.

Constraint theory asks: What is the price for doing this? Now one way around constraint theory is declaring your enemy crazy. Crazy and stupid are not concepts used in forecasting. When people say they're really stupid or they're crazy, that's laziness. That means I don't want to think through their position or about what they're really going to do.

The Chinese have a long history of slaughtering each other without bothering their neighbors.

The poets think about war more than the social scientists.