My approach works not by making valid predictions but by allowing me to correct false ones.

The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.

If the bubbles contain a misconception, as they always do, then it can't be maintained forever.

Outperforming the market with low volatility on a consistent basis is an impossibility. I outperformed the market for 30-odd years, but not with low volatility.

Discount the obvious, bet on the unexpected

What works for Germany can't work for the rest of Europe: No country can run a chronic surplus without others running deficits.

To be successful, you need leisure. You need time hanging heavily on your hands.