Making an investment decision is like formulating a scientific hypothesis and submitting it to a practical test. The main difference is that the hypothesis that underlies an investment decision is intended to make money and not to establish a universally valid generalization.

However, even a strong government can't perform miracles. It needs money from the taxpayers.

The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposite position. I assume that markets are always wrong.

The assumption of perfect knowledge is very far from reality ... a lot of the evil in the world is actually not intentional.

There is no question that a breakup of the euro would be very damaging, very costly, both financially and politically. And the biggest loss would be incurred by Germany. Germans have to bear in mind that, effectively, they have suffered practically no losses so far. Transfers have all been in the form of loans, and it is only when the loans are not repaid that real losses will be incurred.

By creating the European Central Bank, the member states exposed their own government bonds to the risk of default. Developed countries that issue bonds in their own currency never default, because they can always print money. Their currency may depreciate, but the risk of default is absent.

To be successful, you need leisure. You need time hanging heavily on your hands.