Great thinkers often learn, to their surprise, that new ideas are less than welcome.

Cognition requires going beyond the information given, to make bets and therefore to risk errors.

Great thinkers often learn, to their surprise, that new ideas are less than welcome.

I focus on the most important form of innumeracy in everyday life, statistical innumeracy--that is, the inability to reason about uncertainties and risk.

We have to learn to live with uncertainty.