What we define as a bubble is any kind of debt-fueled asset inflation where the cash flow generated by the asset itself - a rental property, office building, condo - does not cover the debt incurred to buy the asset. So you depend on a greater fool, if you will, to come in and buy at a higher price.
James ChanosDubai was a property bubble. Plain and simple. Go to Dubai and see what happened. It was... what I call it the 'Edifice complex' - it's just, we can grow by putting up lots and lots of buildings and trying to attract people to come here, stay here, and put up offices here and sooner or later, you put up too many.
James ChanosThe U.S. healthcare system is probably the most interesting large group of companies that are heading for major problems that we've seen in a long, long time.
James ChanosSo you know, everyone points out Greece's default record, but the history of a lot of sovereign nations is not a good one when it comes to lending them money.
James ChanosI used to think that good short-sellers could be trained like long-focused value investors because it should be the same skill set; youโre tearing into the numbers, youโre valuing the businesses, youโre assigning a consolidated value, and hopefully youโre seeing something the market doesnโt see.But now Iโve learned that thereโs a big difference between a long-focused value investor and a good short-seller. That difference is psychological and I think it falls into the realm of behavioral finance.
James ChanosOur concerns about what we saw in Australia: an economy clearly tied to China has hitched its wagon to the tail of the tiger. In terms of the general complacency, what we heard over and over from investors and clients and potential clients is, 'yes, yes, there are some excesses, but the government will figure out a way.
James Chanos