The autocracies of the Arab world have been as economically destructive as they've been politically repressive.
James SurowieckiLower oil prices won't, by themselves, topple the mullahs in Iran. But it's significant that, historically, when oil prices have been low, Iranian reformers have been ascendant and radicals relatively subdued, and vice versa when prices have been high.
James SurowieckiDiversity and independence are important because the best collective decisions are the product of disagreement and contest, not consensus or compromising. An intelligent group, especially when confronted with cognition problems, does not ask its members to modify their positions in order to let the group reach a decision everyone can be happy with. Insteadโฆthe best way for a group to be smart is for each person in it to think and act as independently as possible.
James SurowieckiPatrimonial capitalism's legacy is that many people see reform as a euphemism for corruption and self-dealing.
James SurowieckiAuto repair, piloting, skiing, perhaps even management: these are skills that yield to application, hard work, and native talent. But forecasting an uncertain future and deciding the best course of action in the face of that future are much less likely to do so. And much of what we've seen so far suggests that a large group of diverse individuals will come up with better and more robust forecasts and make more intelligent decisions than even the most skilled "decision maker."
James Surowiecki