There is a lot of pain still to be had in the equity markets, particularly aimed at the risky end of the spectrum. We think the fair value on the market is about a third lower in the U.S. . .
Jeremy GranthamRidiculous as our market volatility might seem to an intelligent Martian, it is our reality and everyone loves to trot out the 'quote' attributed to Keynes (but never documented): 'The market can stay irrational longer than the investor can stay solvent.' For us agents, he might better have said 'The market can stay irrational longer than the client can stay patient.'
Jeremy GranthamSome societies are also more optimistic than others: the U.S. and Australia are my two picks Tell a European you think thereโs a housing bubble and youโll have a reasonable discussion. Tell an Australian and youโll have World War III. Been there, done that!
Jeremy GranthamThink how weird profit margins are: We've got high unemployment and financial crises - and world record profit margins. People think the American market is very cheap. We don't. The market quite incorrectly gives full credit to today's earnings.
Jeremy GranthamAt least us old men remember what a real bear market is like, and the young men haven't got a clue.
Jeremy GranthamThe investment business has taught me โ increasingly as the years have passed โ that people, especially investors (and, I believe, Americans), prefer good news and wishful thinking to bad news; and that there are always vested interests to offer facile, optimistic alternatives to the bad news.
Jeremy Grantham