I don't think the emergence of a superhuman intelligence would be at all catastrophic but much more likely to be beneficial - just as long as we don't start trying to interfere with it!
John L. CastiIn fact, the very nature of an X-event is that it is both rare and surprising. So I would not say that any specific X-event is likely. What I would say, though, is that some X-event is not only plausible, but very likely in a time scale of a few years.
John L. CastiOnce the reality sets in of a superhuman intelligence being in control of every aspect of the infrastructures we rely upon for everyday life, we will simply have to try to come to an accommodation with that entity.
John L. CastiThe world is awash in more debt than there is money enough in the world to liquidate it.
John L. CastiTrying to solve the problem by creating more debt is analogous to trying to stop being an alcoholic by going on a bender down at the corner bar.
John L. CastiMy own guess is that quite quickly the machine intelligence will start dreaming machine dreams and thinking machine thoughts, both of which would totally incomprehensible to us. This would then lead to each species, we and the machines, moving off on to its own separate life trajectory.
John L. Casti