Be flexible. Don't be afraid to change your mind. If you're wrong, change your mind. If you go down the wrong path, and you're down 10-12%, it's better to sell down 15% versus 50%. If you have an idea that something is going to happen, you're predicting the future, and it's OK to be wrong. Where you can go wrong is by making a prediction that doesn't come true, and then sticking with it.
John ManleyThere's an old line that goes, the truck you see 400 yards down the road is not the truck that hits you. When we see these problems coming, they usually get defused. Brexit may have been a surprise, but we recognized it as something that could possibly happen.
John ManleyI always think of the economy as going down a pretty broad road that has mud on either side - for inflation and deflation. What hurts the market is when we unexpectedly swerve into one of those mud banks.
John ManleyBoth cream and scum can rise to the top, unfortunately. This lower-quality stuff that's going higher isn't doing it on fundamentals.
John ManleyWhat caused 2008, in my opinion, is that people just didn't see the risk. These people that took on all this risk didn't think they had it - they thought they hedged it all away. As long as there's a perception of risk, and a culture of looking for risk, it's going to be hard to deflate us.
John ManleyPeople are getting tired of being constantly on edge. Maybe that means they do let down their guard or that they're complacent. What does it take to shake that? A 5% correction? A 10% one? Those kinds of declines are unfortunately something you put up with.
John ManleyBe flexible. Don't be afraid to change your mind. If you're wrong, change your mind. If you go down the wrong path, and you're down 10-12%, it's better to sell down 15% versus 50%. If you have an idea that something is going to happen, you're predicting the future, and it's OK to be wrong. Where you can go wrong is by making a prediction that doesn't come true, and then sticking with it.
John Manley