It seems to me that at least as far as the financial markets are concerned, there is increasing evidence against rational expectations, even at the macro level.
Kenneth ArrowI am not really inclined to think there is any very effective regulation of the derivative securities markets that would be useful. People who go into it essentially ought to know what risks they're taking and I don't see any useful regulation.
Kenneth ArrowThe MD is well aware that the forecasts are no good but he needs them for planning purposes.
Kenneth ArrowThere are all sorts of institutions in the economic world which depart from the simple price/market model which I worked on in an earlier incarnation and which has been sort of the mainstream of economic theories since Adam Smith and David Ricardo. There are all sorts of contractual relations between firms and individuals which do not conform to the simple price theory - profit-sharing schemes and so forth - and the explanation for these suddenly became clear. We now understand why these emerged and that they are based on differences in information in the economy.
Kenneth Arrow