I think that systems that are based on employment are illogical and attempts to meet them create all sorts of unnecessary complexities.
Kenneth ArrowThe MD is well aware that the forecasts are no good but he needs them for planning purposes.
Kenneth ArrowIt seems to me that at least as far as the financial markets are concerned, there is increasing evidence against rational expectations, even at the macro level.
Kenneth ArrowI think one of the things we learned from the physicists and also the theoretical biologists is the idea that when you're dealing with very complex systems you're going to get a large variety of behavior which can be interpreted as hill climbing, but hill climbing with a lot of modifications, hill climbing with big jumps occasionally.
Kenneth Arrow