Because prison sentences in America tend to be long, de-incarceration lags falling crime rates by a fair amount, but eventually it does catch up.
Kevin DrumWe stiffened the penalties for fraud, we extended nationwide efforts to make sure that payments are accurate and they closed a loophole in which people were gaming the system. We didn't change eligibility requirements or reduce the level of benefits.
Kevin DrumBlack crime rates fell more steeply than white crime rates, and now black incarceration is falling more steeply than white incarceration.
Kevin Drum