Predicting recessions is indeed a dark art, but I think we are several years away from the next one.

Lenders look at potential borrowers from many angles before extending credit: How much of its income will a household need to put into debt repayment? How large is the down payment? Does the borrower have a job with a stable income? What is the borrower's credit score?

There are different flavors of recession. You can get into some pretty dark scenarios pretty quickly.

It has become fashionable to rail against government intervention in the economy, and the FHA is a favorite example by those trying to show the government's overreach. In reality, the FHA shows how government action during the Great Recession forestalled a much worse economic fate.

The most important point is, in a time of crisis, there is no way out but for the government to be bold and aggressive.

The principal linkages between Japan and the U.S. global economies are trade, financial markets, and commodity markets.

Indeed, the FHA was born out of the Great Depression, which was also caused in significant part by a foreclosure crisis. Mortgages in the early 1930s were mostly three- to five-year 'bullet' loans, which did not amortize and were due in full at maturity.