Predicting recessions is indeed a dark art, but I think we are several years away from the next one.

I'm a registered Democrat.

Distressed properties are often vacant and in disrepair, and thus sold at significant discounts. As the share of distressed sales grows, home prices fall.

Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.

There are different flavors of recession. You can get into some pretty dark scenarios pretty quickly.

A home is still the biggest asset that most Americans own.

There is a banking adage that if it's growing like a weed, it's a good chance that it's a weed.