Predicting recessions is indeed a dark art, but I think we are several years away from the next one.
Mark ZandiLenders look at potential borrowers from many angles before extending credit: How much of its income will a household need to put into debt repayment? How large is the down payment? Does the borrower have a job with a stable income? What is the borrower's credit score?
Mark ZandiBuying a home wouldn't make much sense if house prices were likely to decline further; no one wants to catch a falling knife.
Mark Zandi