[When] the market is trying to get to terms with, first, lower global growth, particularly out of emerging markets and China. And, second, the market is worried the central banks have run out of ammunition. So put these two things together, and then investors are repricing the market lower.
Mohamed El-ErianAmerica's downgrade may serve as a wakeup call for its policymakers. It is an unambiguous and loud signal of the country's eroding economic strength and global standing. It renders urgent the need to regain the initiative through better economic policymaking and more coherent governance.
Mohamed El-ErianHow long can interest rates stay negative? Think about this. Not only are you lending your money to governments, but you're paying them interest for the privilege of doing so.
Mohamed El-ErianThe one instrument that has relative political autonomy is monetary policy. Central banks do not need to go to Congress to get approval for an interest rate hike.
Mohamed El-ErianOnce you start moving [market] lower, then you trigger of all sorts of things. You trigger people who have to sell because they're over-levered. So they sell their winners and their losers. They're just trying to raise cash. So, what you then get is spreading malaise throughout the global markets.
Mohamed El-ErianWe normally think if you're going to lend someone money, you should get some reward for doing this. In Europe, it's a tax!
Mohamed El-ErianIt is hard to imagine that, having downgraded the US, S & P will not follow suit on at least one of the other members of the dwindling club of sovereign AAAs. If this were to materialise and involve a country like France, for example, it could complicate the already fragile efforts by Europe to rescue countries in its periphery.
Mohamed El-Erian