Realism is punishing. Probabilistic skepticism is worse.

Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.

For many people, commuting is the worst part of the day, and policies that can make commuting shorter and more convenient would be a straightforward way to reduce minor but widespread suffering.

Luck is the grand equalizer.

It might be useful to be able to predict war. But tension does not necessarily lead to war, but often to peace and to denouement.

We should ban banks from risk-taking because society is going to pay the price.

The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary.