I don't know anyone on Wall Street who goes to work every day thinking of anything but how to increase their bonus.

The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship, upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding.

Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.

The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history

The opposite of fragile is something that gains from disorder.

Avoid losers. If you hear someone use the words 'impossible', 'never', 'too difficult' too often, drop him or her from your social network.

The twentieth century was the bankruptcy of the social utopia; the twenty-first will be that of the technological one.