Probability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off.

I am happy everywhere except in places where I see glitz and rich farts. I am happiest in Brooklyn, where the concentration of rich farts is minimal.

You never win an argument until they attack your person.

In economic life and history more generally, just about everything of consequence comes from black swans; ordinary events have paltry effects in the long term.

People have the problem of denial. This is one of the things I learned in Lebanon. Everybody who left Beirut when the war started, including my parents, said, 'Oh, its temporary.' It lasted 17 years! People tend to underestimate the gravity of these situations. That's how they work.

I drive a hybrid, moving into an electric car. I only drink tap water, never consume food that's travelled.

I suspect the I.Q., SAT, and school grades are tests designed by nerds so they can get high scores in order to call each other intelligent...Smart and wise people who score low on IQ tests, or patently intellectually defective ones, like the former U.S. president George W. Bush, who score high on them (130), are testing the test and not the reverse.