I always remind myself that what one observes is at best a combination of variance and returns, not just returns.

...maximize the serendipity around you.

Don't disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don't understand their logic. Don't pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific 'evidence'.

If I ask you to write down the last 4 digits of your social security number, and then take you out to lunch and ask you how many dentists there are in Manhattan, there's going to be a high correlation between those two numbers. What happens is that the number psychologically makes you feel confident.

The fool generalizes the particular; the nerd particularizes the general; some do both; and the wise does neither

Every social association that is not face-to-face is injurious to your health.

Probability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off.