Success is becoming in middle adulthood what you dreamed to be in late childhood.

The central idea in The Black Swan is that: rare events cannot be estimated from empirical observation since they are rare.

Switzerland is the perfect place where you have volatility at a municipal level that nothing up top - small units competing with each other.

I'm a private intellectual, not a public one.

Wit seduces by signaling intelligence without nerdiness.

They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns)

Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.