It does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.

Suckers try to win arguments, nonsuckers try to win.

Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.

I'm a private intellectual, not a public one.

Scientists may be in the business of laughing at their predecessors, but owing to an array of human mental dispositions, few realize that someone will laugh at their beliefs in the (disappointingly near) future.

He who has never sinned is less reliable than he who has only sinned once.

Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have—or don’t have—in their portfolio.