Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.

Success is about honour, feeling morally calibrated, absence of shame, not what some newspaper defines from an external metric.

It is a sign of weakness to avoid showing signs of weakness.

Remember that you are a Black Swan.

If you hear a "prominent" economist using the word 'equilibrium,' or 'normal distribution,' do not argue with him; just ignore him, or try to put a rat down his shirt.

Anything that provides you with very, very stable income, very stable conditions, maybe generally stable, that often, it masks real risks, risks of blow-ups.

My point taken further is that True and False (hence what we call "belief") play a poor, secondary role in human decisions; it is the payoff from the True and the False that dominates-and it is almost always asymmetric, with one consequence much bigger than the other, i.e., harboring positive and negative asymmetries (fragile or antifragile). Let me explain.