Charm is the ability to insult people without offending them; nerdiness the reverse

The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history

Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.

Probability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off.

I always remind myself that what one observes is at best a combination of variance and returns, not just returns.

Few understand that procrastination is our natural defense, letting things take care of themselves and exercise their antifragility; it results from some ecological or naturalistic wisdom, and is not always bad - at an existential level, it is my body rebelling against its entrapment. It is my soul fighting the Procrustean bed of modernity.

If you let markets - in general, my belief is that if you let markets give you information, they'll give you the information rather than artificially prop up everything.