We know from chaos theory that even if you had a perfect model of the world, you'd need infinite precision in order to predict future events. With sociopolitical or economic phenomena, we don't have anything like that.

You find peace by coming to terms with what you don't know.

The world we live in is vastly different from the world we think we live in.

Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.

It might be useful to be able to predict war. But tension does not necessarily lead to war, but often to peace and to denouement.

A good maxim allows you to have the last word without even starting a conversation.

Don't disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don't understand their logic. Don't pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific 'evidence'.