Hard work will get you a professorship or a BMW. You need both work and luck for a Booker, a Nobel or a private jet.
Nassim Nicholas TalebPeople have the problem of denial. This is one of the things I learned in Lebanon. Everybody who left Beirut when the war started, including my parents, said, 'Oh, its temporary.' It lasted 17 years! People tend to underestimate the gravity of these situations. That's how they work.
Nassim Nicholas TalebIn economic life and history more generally, just about everything of consequence comes from black swans; ordinary events have paltry effects in the long term.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb