Philosophers talk about truth and falsehood. People in life talk about payoff, exposure, and consequences (risks and rewards), hence fragility and antifragility. And sometimes philosophers and thinkers and those who study conflate Truth with risks and rewards.

Academia is to knowledge what prostitution is to love.

I lift heavy weights and sprint, but I am so bad at it that I develop severe injuries.

Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.

If there is something in nature you don't understand, odds are it makes sense in a deeper way that is beyond your understanding. So there is a logic to natural things that is much superior to our own. Just as there is a dichotomy in law: 'innocent until proven guilty' as opposed to 'guilty until proven innocent', let me express my rule as follows: what Mother Nature does is rigorous until proven otherwise; what humans and science do is flawed until proven otherwise.

The central idea in The Black Swan is that: rare events cannot be estimated from empirical observation since they are rare.

Bitcoin is the beginning of something great: a currency without a government, something necessary and imperative.