The track record of economists in predicting events is monstrously bad. It is beyond simplification; it is like medieval medicine.
Nassim Nicholas TalebIt might be useful to be able to predict war. But tension does not necessarily lead to war, but often to peace and to denouement.
Nassim Nicholas TalebWittgenstein's ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler's reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb