A good rule of thumb is as follows: If the numbers come from somebody wearing a tie (Wall Street economist or analyst, industry public relations department, captive think tank academic and so on), you ought to be very skeptical. By design messages from these people are intended to move markets, move merchandise and/or move public policy and are not a comment on the state of the physical universe.
Nassim Nicholas TalebComfort makes you weaker. We need some variability, some stressors. Not too much, but just enough.
Nassim Nicholas TalebYou have family-owned businesses that have been around for 500 years. You cannot name a corporation that survives intact for even a few decades.
Nassim Nicholas TalebIf you are in banking and lending, surprise outcomes are likely to be negative for you.
Nassim Nicholas TalebMy major hobby is teasing people who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously and those who don't have the guts to sometimes say: I don't know.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb