A good rule of thumb is as follows: If the numbers come from somebody wearing a tie (Wall Street economist or analyst, industry public relations department, captive think tank academic and so on), you ought to be very skeptical. By design messages from these people are intended to move markets, move merchandise and/or move public policy and are not a comment on the state of the physical universe.
Nassim Nicholas TalebBanks have never made money in the history of banking, losing the equivalent of all their past profits periodically - while bankers strike it rich.
Nassim Nicholas TalebWhen I trade, I don't have an agency problem; I have my neck on the line. When a bank or banker trades, it's not his neck on the line.
Nassim Nicholas TalebProbability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb