The bond market is debating with itself what the intent of the Fed is. I don't think the Fed has a multi-step process. They are taking it step by step.
Paul McCulleyThe essence of the problem is that the war against inflation is over, ... Ever since 1979 the Fed was fighting a war against inflation, and you always knew which way you wanted the inflation rate to go over the long run -- down.
Paul McCulleyThe lion's share of the bear market is over, ... It's a two-part issue. Yes, the marketplace could be nasty. But there's a great deal of nastiness that's already happened in the bond market.
Paul McCulley