The theory of probabilities is basically only common sense reduced to a calculus. It makes one estimate accurately what right-minded people feel by a sort of instinct, often without being able to give a reason for it.
Pierre-Simon LaplaceDo you believe in god? I have no need for that hypothesis, he may be around though.
Pierre-Simon LaplaceThe mind has its illusions as the sense of sight; and in the same manner that the sense of feeling corrects the latter, reflection and calculation correct the former.
Pierre-Simon LaplaceIf an event can be produced by a number n of different causes, the probabilities of the existence of these causes, given the event (prises de l'รฉvรฉnement), are to each other as the probabilities of the event, given the causes: and the probability of each cause is equal to the probability of the event, given that cause, divided by the sum of all the probabilities of the event, given each of the causes.
Pierre-Simon Laplace