My father, Benjamin Shiller, told me not to believe in authorities or celebrities - that society tends to imagine them as superhuman. It's good advice. People are snowed by celebrities all the time. In academia people have this idea of achieving stardom - publishing in the best journals, being at the best university, writing on the hot topic everyone else is writing about. But that's what my father told me not to do. He taught me that you have to pursue things that sound right to you.
Robert J. ShillerEconomists who adhere to rational-expectations models of the world will never admit it, but a lot of what happens in markets is driven by pure stupidity - or, rather, inattention, misinformation about fundamentals, and an exaggerated focus on currently circulating stories.
Robert J. ShillerConsider our difficulties avoiding junk food and overspending. Such addictions were carefully planned-for by professional marketing teams.
Robert J. ShillerIn the short run and for decisions unlikely to have broad impact, it may be more cost effective to use just one expert.
Robert J. ShillerSome of the best theorizing comes after collecting data because then you become aware of another reality.
Robert J. ShillerCan a controlled experiment explain why people like Kewpie dolls in one year, Beanie Babies in another, and American Girl dolls this year? Yet social scientists are asked to answer analogous questions. We economists and perhaps psychologists shouldn't overreact to the derision. That is, we shouldn't try to overlay a false sense of precision on our admittedly squooshy work.
Robert J. Shiller