Speculators are obsessed with predicting: guessing the direction of stock prices. Every morning on cable television, every afternoon on the stock market report, every weekend in Barron's, every week in dozens of market newsletters, and whenever business people get together. In reality, no one knows what the market will do; trying to predict it is a waste of time, and investing based upon that prediction is a purely speculative undertaking.
Seth KlarmanSuccessful investors like stocks better when theyโre going down. When you go to a department store or a supermarket, you like to buy merchandise on sale, but it doesnโt work that way in the stock market. In the stock market, people panic when stocks are going down, so they like them less when they should like them more. When prices go down, you shouldnโt panic, but itโs hard to control your emotions when youโre overextended, when you see your net worth drop in half and you worry that you wonโt have enough money to pay for your kidsโ college.
Seth KlarmanA simple rule applies: if you don't quickly comprehend what a company is doing, then management probably doesn't either.
Seth KlarmanIt sounds kind of crazy, but in times of turmoil in the market, I've felt a sort of serenity in knowing that I've checked and re-checked my work, one plus one still equals two regardless of where a stock trades right after I buy it.
Seth KlarmanI think Buffett is a better investor than me because he has a better eye toward what makes a great business. And when I find a great business I'm happy to buy it and hold it. Most businesses don't look so great to me.
Seth KlarmanYou probably would not choose to dine at a restaurant whose chef always ate elsewhere. I do eat my own cooking, and I don't "dine out" when it comes to investing.
Seth KlarmanWhen excesses such as lax lending standards become widespread and persist for some time, people are lulled into a false sense of security, creating an even more dangerous situation. In some cases, excesses migrate beyond regional or national borders, raising the ante for investors and governments. These excesses will eventually end, triggering a crisis at least in proportion to the degree of the excesses. Correlations between asset classes may be surprisingly high when leverage rapidly unwinds.
Seth Klarman