The prevailing view has been that the market will earn a high rate of return if the holding period is long enough, but entry point is what really matters.

When managers are afraid of redemptions, they get liquid. We all saw how many managers went from leveraged long in 2007 to huge net cash in 2008, when the right thing to do in terms of value would have been to do the opposite.

Most institutional investors feel compelled to swing at almost every pitch and forgo batting selectivity for frequency.

Buying's easier, selling's hard - [it's] hard to know when to get out.

Limit risk with: Deep analysis Bargain purchase Sensitivity analysis.

Targeting investment returns leads investors to focus on potential upside rather on downside risk ... rather than targeting a desired rate of return, even an eminently reasonable one, investors should target risk.

The government - the ultimate short-term-oriented player - cannot withstand much pain in the economy or the financial markets. Bailouts and rescues are likely to occur, though not with sufficient predictability for investors to comfortably take advantage. The government will take enormous risks in such interventions, especially if the expenses can be conveniently deferred to the future. Some of the price-tag is in the form of back- stops and guarantees, whose cost is almost impossible to determine.