The prevailing view has been that the market will earn a high rate of return if the holding period is long enough, but entry point is what really matters.
Seth KlarmanWe continue to adhere to a common-sense view of risk - how much we can lose and the probability of losing it. While this perspective may seem over simplisticor even hopelessly outdated, we believe it provides a vital clarity about the true risks in investing.
Seth KlarmanThe government can reasonably rely on debt ratings when it forms programs to lend money to buyers of otherwise unattractive debt instruments.
Seth KlarmanWhen excesses such as lax lending standards become widespread and persist for some time, people are lulled into a false sense of security, creating an even more dangerous situation. In some cases, excesses migrate beyond regional or national borders, raising the ante for investors and governments. These excesses will eventually end, triggering a crisis at least in proportion to the degree of the excesses. Correlations between asset classes may be surprisingly high when leverage rapidly unwinds.
Seth Klarman