The plausible outcomes range from the gradual and benign to the more precipitous and damaging.

Most consequential choices involve shades of gray, and some fog is often useful in getting things done

There is a basic lesson on financial crises that governments tend to wait too long, underestimate the risks, want to do too little. And it ultimately gets away from them, and they end up spending more money, causing much more damage to the economy.

The government can help, but we need to make this transition now to a recovery led by private investment.

The plausible outcomes range from the gradual and benign to the more precipitous and damaging.

The major economic policy challenges facing the nation today - pick your favorites among the usual suspects of low public and household savings, concerns about educational quality and achievement, high and rising income inequality, the large imbalances between our social insurance commitments and resources - are not about monetary policy.

The recognition that things that are not sustainable will eventually come to an end does not give us much of a guide to whether the transition will be calm or exciting.