I think that right now the West understands Russia better than before and feels a much greater wariness toward it. I think that, if anything, Russia's sinister nature is exaggerated, in that most contemporary analysts in the West can't even imagine that Russia could be different. I think it can, with a different turn of events.

If Putin and those around him had been smart enough to go in a different direction... The country was ready. The conditions were extremely favorable - with oil prices as high as they were, it was possible to do anything. It was possible to solidify democracy. After the Yeltsin years people began to think that democracy is a disaster, that democracy equals misery. Putin got a lucky break - and he used it the KGB way. He turned out to be a wily KGB man, not a wise statesman.

From Gorbachev to Yeltsin, the pendulum swung one way; now, Putin has pushed it very far in the opposite direction, and the backlash is inevitable. So I think the year 2042 could be quite interesting. Specifically, I think today's reactionary policy will end in total failure and the need for a new perestroika; there will be a "time of troubles," which may well end in the disintegration of Russia.

I think that right now the West understands Russia better than before and feels a much greater wariness toward it. I think that, if anything, Russia's sinister nature is exaggerated, in that most contemporary analysts in the West can't even imagine that Russia could be different. I think it can, with a different turn of events.

After all these recent events in Russia - "Crimea is ours!," Donbas, all that - I realized I could get back into the business of forecasting. Until now, I didn't feel up to it. I actually was wrong about one thing: I predicted that Putin would be forced to leave soon, but he's still there. Generally, once again - this time not in seventy years but in a very short time - the President and the Duma have reached the stage of such idiocy that they are constantly taking actions which are not simply pointless but harmful, to Russia itself.

Russia may soon get another chance to move closer to the West, to make a step - I do believe the first step toward democracy was made in the 1990s, and perhaps the next step can happen now. If this happens, the West needs to see it in time and support it in an intelligent way.

Putin got lucky with the Sochi Olympics - it didn't fail, it was a great spectacle - and then he thought, "Why not grab Crimea?" And ended up getting stuck. If he had been a wise man, he wouldn't have done that. Of course, then he wouldn't have held the Olympics, either.