There is a deep connection between Bernoulli's dictum and John Kelly's 1956 publication. It turns out that Kelly's prescription can be restated as this simple rule: When faced with a choice of wagers or investments, choose the one with the highest geometric means of outcomes.

Kelly was aware that there is one type of favorable bet available to everyone; the stock market.

Samuelson, however, hedged his personal bets - by putting some of his own money in Berkshire Hathaway.

Samuelson spotted a mistake in Bacheliers work. Bachelier's model had failed to consider that stock prices cannot fall below zero.

In real conversations, we are always trying to outguess each other.

People tend to be clueless about prices. Contrary to economic theory, we don't really decide between A and B by consulting our invisible price tags and purchasing the one that yields the higher utility, he says. We make do with guesstimates and a vague recollection of what things are “supposed to cost.”

The story of the Kelly system is a story of secrets - or if you prefer, a story of entropy.