Cutting through complexity to find a solution runs through four predictable stages: determine a goal, find the highest-leverage approach, discover the ideal technology for that approach, and in the meantime, make the smartest application of the technology that you already have - whether it's something sophisticated, like a drug, or something simpler, like a bednet.
Bill GatesPeople often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in ten.
Bill Gates