Ive got a fantasy-baseball team with my brother. But I have to admit, he does all the work.

A 99% Value-at-Risk calculation does not evaluate what happens in the last one percent... This is like an airbag that works all the time, except when you have a car accident.

Microsoft could help Facebook with one of the biggest challenges, namely monetizing its traffic without reducing the user's experience. It's obvious that Microsoft needs traffic and Facebook needs search.

What is uncertain is how much further the bubble can expand, and what might pop it.

I will keep a substantial long exposure to gold -- which serves as a Jelly Donut antidote for my portfolio. While I'd love for our leaders to adopt sensible policies that would reduce the tail risks so that I could sell our gold, one nice thing about gold is that it doesn't even have quarterly conference calls.

As an investor my job is to figure out what will happen rather than what should happen.

You have a certain set of facts and you are looking for situations where you have an edge, whether the edge is psychological or statistical.