You want to be extra rigorous about making the best possible thing you can. Find everything that's wrong with it and fix it.

When Henry Ford made cheap, reliable cars people said, 'Nah, what's wrong with a horse?' That was a huge bet he made, and it worked.

The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur.

We need to figure out how to have the things we love, and not destroy the world.

I started SpaceX with the expectation of failure.

I think there are too many smart people pursuing internet stuff, finance, and law. That is part of the reason why we haven't seen as much innovation.

Does the logic connect? What are the range of probably outcomes? You want to figure out what those probabilities are and ideally be the House. It's fine to gamble, as long as you're the House. Also, listen to critical feedback, particularly from friends. Generally they will be thinking it but they won't tell you.