I’d compare stock pickers to astrologers but I don’t want to bad mouth astrologers.

I don't think the Federal Reserve has any role in how high rates are right now. I don't understand why everyone is paying attention to this tapering. The Fed is using one kind of bond to buy another kind of bond. What's the big deal, and why is anyone taking the Fed seriously?

Active management is a zero-sum game before cost, and the winners have to win at the expense of the losers.

I take the market-efficiency hypothesis to be the simple statement that security prices fully reflect all available information.

The distribution of the market is fat-tailed relative to the normal distribution... For passive investors, none of this matters, beyond being aware that outlier returns are more common than would be expected if return distributions were normal.

An investor doesn’t have a prayer of picking a manager that can deliver true alpha.

I don't even know what that means. People who get credit have to get it from somewhere. Does a credit bubble mean that people save too much during that period? I don't know what a credit bubble means. I don't even know what a bubble means. These words have become popular. I don't think they have any meaning.